Introducing Uncertainty Quantification to Techno-economic Models of Manufacturing Field-Grown Plant-Made Products

Abstract

There is a growing demand for large market natural and biotechnological products, for example, consumer preferences drive plant-based meat alternatives, health risks of sugar overconsumption continue to motivate alternative sweeteners, and the COVID-19 pandemic has reinvigorated interest in countries developing in-house vaccine and medication production capabilities. The current paradigm of bioreactor-based biomanufacturing faces difficulties of scalability and a high entry barrier of capital intensity and workforce specialization. Field-grown plant-based manufacturing, as an inexpensive and readily scalable platform, is a promising strategy to meet this emerging demand. Despite some successes in field-grown bioproducts manufacturing by companies such as Ventria Biosciences, concerns of product variability have largely stymied growth in this area. Here we report on the development and use of techno-economic modeling coupled with Monte Carlo-based uncertainty quantification as an effective tool to quantify and mitigate the impact of crop variation on product quality and supply for field-grown plant-based manufacturing.