CPM Stability in Complex Projects and Systems

Abstract

Critical Path Methods fail in complex projects. This article portrays how they fail, why they fail, and what remedies may be suggested, if at all. Capitalizing on morphological similarities, the research of complex projects’ CPM is coupled by research of complex infrastructure. Falsification procedure is applied to some common mathematical tools for stability analysis taken from evolutionary graph theory and network theory. Morphology and risk impact on networks stability, evolution, viability kernel, modeling limitations and on Entropy, are demonstrated. Entropy has a pivotal role in explaining why various indices such as criticality index and replicator equation lose their predictive capacity. The research analysis is conducted by numerical experiments, validated by case-studies, and evaluated by expertise. This research contributes the addressing of the gap in understanding of CPM systems failure, in suggesting a possible predictive tool and it contributes a drive to return to the management of projects rather than the management of models. CPM is reduced to a descriptive tool for project management with a promising application to infrastructure management.