Preprint / Version 2

A new perspective on global renewable energy systems: why trade in energy carriers matters

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31224/osf.io/t6zdv

Keywords:

hydrogen, renewable energy, renewable fuels, trade

Abstract

Recent global modelling studies suggest a decline of long-distance trade in energy carriers in future global renewable energy systems, compared to today’s fossil fuel energy system. In contrast, we identified four crucial drivers that enable trade of renewable energy carriers. These drivers could make trade remain at current levels or even increase during the transition to an energy system with very high shares of renewables. First, new land-efficient technologies for renewable fuel production become increasingly available and technically allow for long-distance trade in renewables. Second, regional differences in social acceptance and land availability for energy infrastructure support the development of renewable fuel import and export streams. Third, the economics of renewable energy systems, i.e. the different production conditions globally and the high costs of fully renewable regional electricity systems, will create opportunities for spatial arbitrage. Fourth, the reduction of stranded investments in the fossil fuel sector is possible by switching from fossil fuel to renewable fuel trade in exporting regions. The impact of these drivers on trade in energy carriers is currently under-investigated by the global energy research community. Therefore, we call for a major research effort in this field, in particular as trade can redistribute profits and losses of climate change mitigation and may hence support finding new partners in climate change mitigation negotiations.

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Posted

2019-01-09 — Updated on 2019-01-09

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