Modelling the embodied carbon cost of UK domestic building construction: Today to 2050

Abstract

This paper aims to model upfront embodied carbon cost to deliver domestic properties in the UK by 2050. For this purpose, a bottom-up analysis modelling 7 domestic buildings typologies was used. The analysis covers possible interventions to reduce upfront embodied carbon cost in domestic building sector. The results show that maintaining today's emissions, the remaining 2050 carbon budget (160 MtCO2e) will be spend by 2036. If today's living floor area per capita (37.5m2) is maintained in 2050, for commonly used technologies and today’s low demolition rates, new construction could end by 2035 with cumulative upfront embodied carbon by 2050 of 88MtCO2e. It is possible to reach absolute zero in 2050 if the living floor area per capita do not exceed the EU average (40.5m2) with the cumulative embodied carbon of 160MtCO2e. These emissions will double if we will be adding 355,000 new homes each year by 2050 (300,000 in England).

We have found that significant upfront embodied carbon savings can be achieved by simultaneously changing the typology share, increasing material efficiency, increasing conversion from non-residential buildings and increasing the use of timber for structural purposes.