Do electrical interties stimulate Canadian hydroelectric development? Using causal inference to scope environmental impact assessment in evolving sociotechnical systems

Abstract

Debates over the scope of environmental impact and life cycle assessment frequently revolve around disagreements on the causal structure of complex sociotechnical systems. Environmental advocates in the United States have claimed that new electrical interties with Canada increase development of Canadian hydroelectric resources, leading to environmental and health impacts associated with new reservoirs. Recently, two large (9.5 TWh year^-1) transborder transmission projects were cancelled as a result of community opposition, delaying decarbonization. We demonstrate via Bayesian network modeling that development of Canadian hydroelectric resources is stimulated by price signals and domestic demand rather than increased export capacity. This suggests a narrower scope for environmental impacts considered in the setting of transborder interties and may increase support for transmission projects among stakeholders. More broadly, Bayesian analysis can be used to elucidate causal divers in evolving sociotechnical systems to develop consensus for the scope of environmental impacts to consider in cost-benefit analysis.