Accessing Acute Care Hospitals in the San Francisco Bay after a Major Hayward Earthquake

Abstract

Earthquakes can severely disrupt healthcare access, especially in dense cities. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of how a magnitude 7.25 earthquake on the Hayward Fault would impact access to acute care hospitals in the San Francisco Bay Area. By integrating seismic hazard with hospital and transportation infrastructure’s vulnerability and connectivity data, we analyze 76 hospitals (426 buildings with 16,639 beds) and 5,163 bridges within a vast network of ∼1.5 million edges and ∼0.5 million nodes. We leverage the rich data to formulate a coupled risk-network model to quantify simultaneous failures and cascading disruptions across the healthcare and transportation systems. Our results revealed that hospital bed capacity could drop to 51%, with Alameda County retaining only 20%. Widespread transportation failures further restrict access, increasing regional travel times by 177% and exceeding 1000% in parts of East Bay, potentially fully isolating hospitals and entire urban communities. These findings underscore the urgent need for resilient healthcare and transportation infrastructure to mitigate life-threatening disruptions following major earthquakes.