Climate model forecasts of solar spectrum variation: effects on photovoltaics and crop photosynthesis

Abstract

Accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere alters the spectrum of sunlight that reaches the surface. Atmospheric parameters forecasted by five climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project were input to the radiative transfer model SMARTS to generate spectra over six decades (2018-2082). The potential geographic and temporal variation of photovoltaic and photosynthetic output was forecast for the spectral responses of one-, two- and three-junction PV cells, and three crop plants: corn, wheat, and rice.