Assessing the baseline energy behaviour of the national single-family building stock: a parametrized modelling approach

Abstract

Building stock energy modeling (BSEM) has become an essential tool for policymakers aiming to achieve carbon-neutral built heritage and adapt to climate change. This study proposes a parameterized energy model developed using Rhino/Grasshopper/Ladybug software to create a BSEM set that accurately represents the current Chilean single-family housing stock. The methodology incorporates 29 different building archetypes and 27 stochastic variables, each defined by its probability distribution. The model is applied nationally and across each administrative region, resulting in the creation of 1,130 building energy models to ensure consistent results. Nationwide, space heating energy use is estimated to range from 11 to 850 kWh/m² (90% CI: 27-285 kWh), while total energy use is estimated between 569 and 53,209 kWh/year (90% CI: 1,400-20,173 kWh/year), aligning well with empirical data. The most influential factors affecting space heating energy use include heating control variables, internal mass, and air permeability; these should be prioritized in future research and national energy surveys. In the near future, these BSEMs can be utilized to evaluate the impacts of various climate change scenarios and occupant behaviour on indoor thermal comfort, as well as to explore retrofitting strategies for transitioning the built heritage to a low-carbon building stock.