Assessing the Predictive Capacity of Streamflow Estimations for Modelling Water Security Dynamics in Arid Regions: A Case Study of Kuwait

Abstract

Kuwait faces significant challenges in water resource management due to its extreme aridity and heavy reliance on non-renewable groundwater and desalination. This study evaluates the water security of the Raudhatain and Umm Al Aysh aquifers, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate groundwater recharge rates. Employing high-resolution spatial data, including Digital Elevation Models (DEM) and satellite imagery, the model was calibrated and validated to assess groundwater flows under various land use and climate scenarios. Streamflow generated from combining surface runoff, lateral flow and baseflow estimations, was used to calibrate the model due to the lack of observed streamflow data in the region. The study estimates the average areal groundwater recharge rates for the Raudhatain watershed to be 6.22 mm/year, and the Raudhatain and Umm Al Aysh freshwater aquifers to be 12.35 mm/year and 13.64 mm/year, respectively. These findings prove the reliability of the streamflow estimations, after deep analysis and comparisons of the results with other studies done on the Raudhatain basin. The findings reveal critical imbalances between groundwater recharge and extraction rates, with recharge rates being significantly less than extraction rates. The simulations in this study indicate that without intervention, the current extraction rates will lead to substantial depletion of the Raudhatain and Umm Al Aysh aquifers by the years 2050 and 2059, respectively. The findings of this paper suggest that the amount of artificial recharge required to ensure the long-term safety of the Raudhatain and Umm Al Aysh freshwater aquifers is 3.0 million 𝑚3 and 1.5 million 𝑚3, respectively, while prioritising the Raudhatain aquifer. This study recommends maximising the utilisation of the sparse rainfall in Kuwait for artificial recharge through sustainable management practices that promote water reuse and recycling. The creation of shallow infiltration ponds in the aquifers known as Chaukas have been proposed to maximise the utilisation of the very little rainfall in Kuwait. By comparing these results with global arid regions, the study provides valuable insights into effective groundwater management strategies that could be adapted to similar environments facing water scarcity.