Probabilistic analysis of ecological, economic, and health tradeoffs of decarbonization pathways for New England, USA

Abstract

Advocates, researchers and policymakers seek characterizations of tradeoffs from diverse decarbonization pathways beyond outputs of optimization models and robust quantification of uncertainties. We develop and apply to New England, U.S.A. an hourly-scale probabilistic model accepting portfolio decisions and electricity demand as inputs and simulating costs and impacts through 2050. A pathway incorporating small modular reactors lowers total social costs but increases cost uncertainties compared to the reference “High Electrification” pathway currently pursued by policymakers ($470 ± 97 billion vs. $477 ± 87.5 billion by 2050). All decarbonization pathways have costs and uncertainties in the same order of magnitude but vary dramatically across the ecological and health impacts that drive public attitudes (e.g., land use varies from negligible to 9,890 km²). Tracking uncertainties correlated across pathways improves decision support (e.g., >90% confidence that constraining transmission with Canada increases costs by ≥ $19.4 billion despite overlapping 90% CIs for absolute costs).