Monty-Hall (classical-host) Theorem and Monty-Hall (strategist-host) Theorem
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31224/5594Keywords:
Bayes-Price Rule, Bayes Theorem, Monty-Hall Problem, Monty-Hall Theorems, Monty-Hall (classical-host) Theorem, Monty-Hall (strategist-host) TheoremAbstract
The Monty-Hall (classical-host) Theorem is presented along with a constructive proof by solving the classical Monty-Hall Problem. It establishes the fact that the probability of winning the prize is indeed unaffected by a switched-choice; unlike the most prevalent and widely accepted position held by the leading subject matter experts. The Monty-Hall (strategist-host) Theorem provides a supermodel that subsumes the Monty-Hall (classical-host) Theorem. Eight extreme strategies have been identified and characterized. It is established that there does not exist any strategy, that a strategist-host may play on the guest, which would result in a situation wherein a switched-choice will always (irrespective of the placement of the prize and irrespective of the initial-choice of the guest) lead to an enhancement/diminishment in the chances of winning the prize for the guest.
The clearly partitioned triple-event space, with the twelve mutually-exclusive together-exhaustive possible alternatives, along with the corresponding (joint) probabilities, as represented in a Table, is a fail-safe framework to study, analyze & solve the problem; with no possibility of missing any relevant component terms or including any irrelevant component terms, while going through the required calculations in order to derive the desired results.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Keshava Prasad Halemane

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