Climate change in Oman: Historical data and projections under contrasting scenarios SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-1.9

Abstract

Climate change is broader than global warming, as it includes changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and other environmental shifts. Global surface temperature increased by 1.1 °C during 2011–2020 compared to 1850–1900, while 2024, the warmest year in the past 175 years, was 1.55 °C above that baseline. This study examines historical and projected features of climate change in Oman using data from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal, which applies climate models such as CMIP6, ERA5, and N-SLC. Results show that between 1971 and 2020, Oman’s average warming rate was 0.025 °C/year, with regional variations from 0.017 °C/year in Duqm to 0.048 °C/year in Buraimi. Projections suggest stronger warming of 0.064–0.074 °C/year under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario or weaker warming of 0.01 °C/year under the low-emission SSP1-1.9 pathway. By 2099, maximum June temperatures may rise by 7.11 °C, and sea levels by up to 1.39 m by 2150. No significant rainfall anomaly has yet been observed.