Evaluating Hybrid Electric Turboprop Development with Novel Metrics: Failure Impact and Uncertainty Impact

Abstract

This paper introduces two new metrics, Failure Impact (FI) and Uncertainty Impact (UI), to address the limitations of traditional evaluation methods like Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and Integration Readiness Level (IRL) in the development of hybrid-electric turboprop aircraft. These metrics, scored on a 1-9 scale, quantify the severity of component failures and the impact of uncertainties. The study applies these metrics to a 50-passenger hybrid-electric turboprop, focusing on four critical components: battery, motor, inverter, and thermal management system (TMS).

Using a Multi-Attribute Decision-Making (MADM) framework, the paper evaluates these components under four strategic scenarios: Balanced, Safety-First, Maturity-Focused, and Uncertainty-Reduction. The results from various MADM methods, including MAUT, AHP, BWM, and TOPSIS, consistently identify the battery as the highest priority for testing and resource allocation due to its high FI and UI scores. The TMS consistently ranks as the second priority. The rankings of the motor and inverter vary depending on the strategic focus, particularly under the Uncertainty-Reduction scenario. A non-compensatory method, ELECTRE III, provided a contrasting ranking by placing the battery last due to its extreme risk scores triggering vetoes. The study concludes that the Best-Worst Method (BWM) is particularly well-suited for aerospace applications due to its simplicity and consistency.