An Application of Frank and Morgan Logical Risk Analysis on Customer Metering Systems in Jalalabad Gas Transmission and Distribution System Limited

Abstract

Natural gas is the primary source of energy in Bangladesh, contributing over 70% to the country’s energy needs. The exploration, production, and distribution of natural gas are vital to the economy of Bangladesh, serving industries, power generation, and residential needs.

This research employs the Frank and Morgan Logical Risk Analysis (FMLRA) framework, a methodical approach that combines probabilistic analysis and logical reasoning to identify, evaluate, and mitigate risks related to the gas field operations of Jalalabad Gas Transmission and Distribution System Limited, which plays a crucial role in ensuring reliable natural gas supply to the north-eastern region of Bangladesh. The study, therefore, relies on the Frank and Morgan Logical Risk Analysis framework in assessing the risk profiles of the CMSs by establishing inherent hazards, assessing the control measures, and quantifying composite risks. The study brings out marked variations in composite risk levels among the studied CMSs through tight data analysis and methodical risk modelling, therefore offering useful insights into the complex nature of risk in gas transmission and distribution operations. The clarification of particular hazards that create composite risk levels for each CMS, such as a potential fire explosion, process stability, and environmental hazard, highlights actionable insights for focused risk mitigation activities. The study's lessons are critical to developing strong risk management strategies that will maintain the safety, dependability, and sustainability of gas distribution operations as gas transmission and distribution systems change in response to shifting regulatory environments and technological breakthroughs.