LAKANA SOS (Sovereign Operating System)

Attribution-Controlled Monte Carlo Evaluation of a Local-First Civilian Safety Architecture Under Synthetic Degraded-State Stress

Abstract

Civilian safety-architecture evaluations can confound detector behavior, delivery infrastructure, and full-stack policy composition, obscuring which subsystem produces a reported gain. This study evaluates LAKANA SOS, a local-first civilian safety architecture, through three separated Monte Carlo suites: shared-detector delivery/infrastructure, shared-transport detector trade-space, and end-to-end integration. The archived run records 250,000 nominal trial scenarios and 500,000 synthetic degraded-state trial scenarios. In the headline comparison, the simulator-defined protected-outcome proportion is 0.954636 for LAKANA + CivOS (95% Wilson interval [0.953813, 0.955445]), 0.949616 for LAKANA without CivOS ([0.948752, 0.950467]), and 0.947172 for a synthetic centralized/cloud comparator ([0.946288, 0.948042]). The LAKANA + CivOS minus comparator contrast is 0.007464, equivalent to 0.746400 percentage points, with a bias-corrected and accelerated 95% bootstrap interval [0.007128, 0.007800]. Under the nominal shared-detector suite, detector-side rates are identical across architecture arms; conditional delivery given escalation is 0.500460 for both LAKANA transport variants and 0.237438 for the comparator, while BFB delivery given need is 1.000000 for LAKANA + CivOS and 0.199586 for the comparator. Under synthetic degraded-state shared-detector stress, comparator protected outcome changes from 0.947000 to 0.782674 (absolute change -0.164326; relative change -17.352270%), whereas LAKANA + CivOS changes from 0.954842 to 0.950753 (absolute change -0.004089; relative change -0.428238%). The detector suite does not support detector dominance: more aggressive detector conditions achieve higher recall and protected outcome while imposing higher escalation and false-positive burden. Eight independent replications preserve the architecture ordering. Sobol total-order sensitivity for the CivOS-minus-comparator delta is concentrated on detector aggressiveness / TSARO threshold (ST = 0.992734) within the bounded six-parameter analysis region. The anytime-precision procedure reaches the 5,000,000-sample cap without satisfying its 0.001000 fail-closed target. The supported conclusion is therefore bounded: the simulation provides attribution-controlled evidence of delivery- and fail-closed architecture advantages under modeled conditions, not field proof.