Classical Decomposition Time Series Predictive Model for the Forecast of Domestic Electric Energy Demand and Supply

Abstract

In modern technology and systems modeling, electric energy forecasting is extremely vital in gaining effective application of energy policies. This model is formulated after a thorough study of the power load conditions of Ghana as well as the factors that affect domestic electricity demand of supply in the Country.  In Ghana, the LEAP forecast model is officially applied for electricity demand and projection of power supply which comes with forecasting errors. Thus, there exists a need to develop a forecasting model for the best energy policy and minimize an overall forecasting error compared to the LEAP model.

By virtue of the proposed study, accurate forecasting of power loads, improvement in utilization of electrical equipment, economies of scale and reduction in production cost can be attained. It is also essential to optimize power system resources for the attainment of energy conservation and overall reduction in emissions.