Seismic Analysis and Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Buildings: A Review and Integrated Framework

Abstract

Reinforced concrete (RC) buildings form a major share of the building stock in seismic regions, yet their earthquake performance remains strongly influenced by analysis method, modelling assumptions, hazard characterization, and fragility formulation. This review synthesizes evidence from 130 studies on seismic analysis and probabilistic risk assessment of RC buildings. The literature is examined in five main areas: seismic analysis approaches, structural modelling and simulation techniques, seismic hazard representation and ground motion selection, performance evaluation metrics, and fragility curve development with probabilistic risk assessment. The review shows a clear shift from deterministic, code-based evaluation toward nonlinear, probabilistic, and consequence-oriented frameworks. Simplified procedures remain useful for screening and class-based studies, while nonlinear dynamic methods dominate collapse-sensitive and risk-oriented assessment. The findings also show that modelling choices, site effects, hazard representation, intensity-measure selection, and uncertainty treatment can significantly alter fragility and risk estimates. Although recent studies increasingly connect structural response with damage, collapse, loss, downtime, and recovery, important gaps remain in regional calibration, realistic modelling of existing building stock, and scalable risk-assessment frameworks. Based on these findings, an integrated framework is proposed to systematically link hazard characterization, structural modelling, seismic analysis, performance evaluation, fragility development, and decision-oriented risk assessment within a coherent workflow for existing RC buildings.