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Preprint / Version 14

REFUTATION OF THE LOGICAL FALLACY COMMITTED BY THE SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTS ON THE MONTY-HALL PROBLEM

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31224/5102

Keywords:

a-priori probability, a-posteriori probability, Mutually Independent Events, Mutually Exclusive Together Exhaustive Alternatives, Joint Probability, conditional probability, Restricted Probability, Marginal Probability, Monty-Hall Theorem

Abstract

This research report presents a deep re-look at the classical Monty-Hall Problem, refuting the widely accepted position held by the leading subject area experts, and establishing that there is no rational basis for a switched choice in the decision to be made by the guest of the game show.

Logical consistency requires that any conditionality used in the evaluation process cannot be lifted after the evaluation process, implementing the decision arrived at based on that very conditionality.

 

 

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Posted

2025-08-15 — Updated on 2025-10-08

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Copyright (c) 2025 Keshava Prasad Halemane

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Version justification

minor typos corrected and finalized version submitted